Tesla bets on humanoid robots for 80% of its $25T future as EV sales drop 13%

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced a dramatic strategic shift, projecting that 80% of the company’s value will come from its Optimus humanoid robots rather than electric vehicles, positioning Tesla as a potential $25 trillion company by 2050. This pivot comes as Tesla’s core EV business faces mounting challenges, with global sales dropping 13% in the first half of 2025 and the company’s U.S. market share falling to levels not seen since 2017.

What you should know: Tesla plans aggressive production scaling for its Optimus robots, targeting 5,000 units this year and up to 1 million annually by decade’s end.

• The company built around 1,000 prototype units by mid-2025 but paused production for redesigns due to technical challenges including battery life issues and low payload capacity.
• Tesla is transitioning away from motion capture cameras to develop training methods that allow Optimus robots to learn tasks by watching humans perform them.
• The company plans to use its Full Self-Driving (FSD) chips to power AI decision-making and create vision-based navigation systems using what Musk calls “photon counting”—a system that relies solely on camera data rather than traditional sensors.

The big picture: Tesla’s robotics ambitions coincide with significant struggles in its traditional EV business across key markets.

• Global EV sales dropped 13% in the first half of 2025, with European sales plummeting 40% and Chinese sales declining 5% as local automakers gained market share.
• Tesla accounted for only 38% of total U.S. EV sales last month, marking its lowest market share since October 2017.
• The company faces multiple pressures including expiring EV tax credits, slowing consumer demand, and intensifying competition from companies like China’s BYD.

Market opportunity: GlobalData, a data and analytics company, projects the robotics industry will reach $218 billion by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of 14%.

• Tesla is spending $10 billion on autonomous vehicle development by year-end while simultaneously investing heavily in humanoid robotics.
• Musk’s Master Plan Part 4 suggests this transition could transform Tesla from an automotive company into a robotics powerhouse.

What they’re saying: Investor and analyst sentiment remains divided on Tesla’s strategic direction.

• “The company’s stock is overvalued if people are buying it because Tesla sells EVs,” said Stephen Gengaro, a Stifel analyst who maintains a buy rating based on growth opportunities in Optimus and robotaxis.
• The CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, a wealth management firm, expressed skepticism, arguing Tesla “has abandoned its original mission” to “advance sustainable transportation and energy, not to create robotaxis and human robots.”
• Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, noted that “although Tesla positioned itself as a robotics company, a lack of new products caused shares to drop.”

Stock performance: Tesla shares have reflected the company’s turbulent transition with mixed market reactions.

• The stock dropped 2.76% year-to-date but surged roughly 8.21% in the past month to $368.81 following the release of Master Plan Part 4.