California teens earn $$$ as pile drivers and welders as AI threatens white-collar jobs

California teenagers are bypassing traditional college paths to enter skilled trades, with many earning over $100,000 annually before age 21. This shift reflects growing concerns about AI’s impact on white-collar jobs and the rising costs of higher education, making blue-collar careers increasingly attractive to Gen Z workers seeking stable, well-paying employment.

The big picture: Recent data reveals a stark employment contrast between college majors, with computer engineering and computer science graduates facing unemployment rates of 7.5% and 6.1% respectively, while construction services majors experience just 0.7% unemployment.

Why this matters: Experts predict AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, driving unemployment to 10-20%, making skilled trades appear as a safer career alternative.

What you should know: Trade apprenticeships and union jobs offer compelling financial incentives without the burden of student debt.

• United Association Local 342, a pipe trades union, offers apprentices five-year paid programs that lead to journeyman wages of $80.50 per hour.
• Electrical Training Alliance graduates in Santa Clara start at $91 per hour with full union benefits.
• These programs have acceptance rates as low as 5-10% due to high demand.

Who’s making the switch: The movement includes both high school graduates and college-educated workers seeking career changes.

• A Resume Builder survey found 37% of Gen Z blue-collar workers hold four-year degrees.
• Over 25% of blue-collar Gen Z workers cited AI job security concerns as a career motivator.
• Ellen Lahey, 24, left her UC Santa Barbara earth science degree path for welding, saying “Everyone needs a welder. The job’s not going to leave anytime soon.”

The AI factor: Microsoft research identified blue-collar jobs like plastering, roofing, and pile driving as least threatened by AI automation, though the landscape is evolving.

• An OpenAI study found that AI could best perform jobs typically held by four-year degree graduates.
• Only 4% of jobs were deemed completely safe from AI replacement, including carpentry and roofing.
• 63% of Gen Z respondents don’t believe college degrees will protect them from AI-related job loss.

What instructors are seeing: Vocational schools report increased enrollment and younger students entering programs directly from high school.

• “I think since ChatGPT really started taking off, that kind of opened people’s eyes,” said Jonathan Cronan, HVAC instructor at San Jose Community College.
• Al Garcia from Local 342 noted: “I do think there’s an uptick in folks coming right out of high school applying to the program.”

The automation reality: Even skilled trades are beginning to incorporate AI and robotics, though human expertise remains crucial.

• Collaborative robots (cobots) can now mimic human welds and use AI to monitor quality in real-time.
• AI tools for electricians can analyze and plan more efficient electric grids.
• Instructors estimate it will be “very hard for robots to do what humans do, at least for another 10 to 15 years.”

Current market dynamics: The AI boom paradoxically benefits trades workers in the short term while potentially threatening long-term job security.

• Robert Chon from Electrical Training Alliance noted: “We’re building tons of AI data centers both in San Jose and in Santa Clara right now.”
• He added the conflicted nature of the work: “We know that in building data centers, we’re developing technology that will eventually replace workers and possibly including ourselves someday.”