AI intelligence explosion could trigger AGI by 2038

Futurist Lance Eliot, an AI expert and Forbes columnist, forecasts a potential “intelligence explosion” breakthrough that could rapidly transform conventional AI into artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2038-2039. This moonshot scenario represents one of seven possible pathways to AGI, contrasting sharply with gradual advancement models and potentially compressing decades of AI development into a sudden, chain-reaction-like leap forward.

What you should know: An intelligence explosion theoretically works like a nuclear chain reaction, where AI intelligence feeds off other intelligence to create exponentially more intelligence in rapid succession.

• The concept was first articulated by John Good Irving in 1965, who predicted that “an ultra-intelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make since it will lead to an ‘intelligence explosion.'”
• Unlike linear AI progression, this breakthrough would represent a sudden, discontinuous jump from current AI capabilities directly to human-level artificial general intelligence.
• The timeline assumes AI experts’ consensus prediction of AGI by 2040, rather than individual AI luminaries’ more aggressive 2030 forecasts.

The big picture: This intelligence explosion pathway stands as one of seven major routes Eliot identifies for reaching AGI, representing the most dramatic and unpredictable scenario.

• Linear path: Gradual, step-by-step advancement through scaling and engineering improvements.
• S-curve path: Plateau periods followed by breakthrough-driven resurgences.
• Hockey stick path: Slow initial progress followed by rapid acceleration at key inflection points.
• Rambling path: Erratic fluctuations including hype-disillusionment cycles and external disruptions.
• Moonshot path: Sudden, radical breakthroughs like intelligence explosions.
• Never-ending path: Perpetual pursuit without ever reaching true AGI.
• Dead-end path: Permanent barriers that make AGI ultimately unattainable.

Timeline forecast: Eliot’s speculative roadmap envisions steady but insufficient progress until a critical breakthrough moment.

• 2025-2038: AI advances through multi-modal integration, agentic capabilities, and world models, but AGI remains elusive, causing widespread doubt about its achievability.
• 2038-2039: Intelligence explosion occurs, producing “massive amounts of new intelligence” and self-improving AI systems that achieve human-level performance across all cognitive benchmarks.
• 2039-2040: Widespread consensus emerges that AGI has been attained through the intelligence explosion breakthrough.

Key controversies: The intelligence explosion concept faces significant skepticism and unresolved questions within the AI community.

• No credible evidence exists that intelligence can actually create chain reactions leading to exponential intelligence growth.
• The timeline remains completely uncertain—explosions could theoretically occur in seconds, years, or centuries.
• Starting mechanisms are unknown, with some believing it will happen naturally rather than through human intervention.
• Stopping mechanisms are equally mysterious, raising fears about accidentally overshooting AGI and reaching dangerous artificial superintelligence (ASI).

What this means: The intelligence explosion represents both humanity’s greatest opportunity and potentially its greatest risk in AI development.

• Success could solve humanity’s most pressing challenges through benevolent AGI partnership.
• Failure to control the process could result in ASI that views humans as unnecessary or enslaves them.
• The unpredictable nature means traditional AI safety measures may prove inadequate for managing such rapid transformation.