AI tools are changing workflows more than they are cutting jobs

New research examining the Danish labor market challenges widespread fears of AI taking jobs, revealing minimal impact on employment and wages despite rapid adoption. The study by economists from the University of Chicago and University of Copenhagen analyzed data from 25,000 workers and 7,000 workplaces, finding that AI’s productivity gains have been modest and often offset by new tasks created by the technology itself.

Key findings: The Danish labor market study shows AI adoption has produced modest productivity gains that are counterbalanced by new tasks AI creates.

• Workers experienced an average time saving of just 3%—equivalent to a few hours in a typical work month.
• AI chatbots created new job tasks for 8.4% of workers, including efforts to detect AI-generated content and time spent checking or debugging AI outputs.

Expert perspective: Economist Anders Humlum, who worked on the study, attributes the limited productivity impact to challenges in applying AI to real-world tasks.

• “Most tasks do not fall into that category where ChatGPT can just automate everything,” Humlum explained in an interview with The Register.
• Teachers, for example, now report spending significant time trying to detect whether students are using ChatGPT for homework assignments.

The adoption paradox: Despite limited impact on jobs and wages, AI chatbot adoption has been surprisingly swift across professions.

• The research examined fields often predicted to face AI disruption, including accountancy, IT support, teaching, journalism, and software development.
• Many employers have launched initiatives to encourage AI adoption, yet these efforts “really has not moved the needle” regarding wages or employment outcomes.

Public perception gap: Americans remain significantly more pessimistic about AI’s job impact than experts, despite evidence of limited short-term disruption.

• Only 23% of Americans predict AI will positively impact how people do their jobs, compared to 73% of AI experts, according to Pew Center research.
• The researchers explicitly noted their findings “challenged narratives of imminent labor market transformation due to Generative AI.”